Monday, November 25, 2013

Oil Spill Presents Opportunity: PTT

Despite the negative publicity surrounding PTT’s oil spill in the Gulf of Thailand, there are likely to be few repercussions and any damage to their share price merely provides an investment opportunity.

"Cleaning" up the Rayong Oil Spill
On the 27th July 2013, a pipeline owned by PTT, a Thai majority state-owned oil company, burst while oil was being transferred from an undersea well to a tanker. By the next night, the oil had spilled to the famous resort town of Koh Samet resulting in the beaches’ closure and its tourists being evacuated. The oil spill has caused widespread concern about the environmental and health impact of oil operations in the Gulf of Thailand on local residents. For instance, mercury levels were reported to be 29 times safe limits and the use of dispersants have caused oil to sink to the bottom of the sea and further damage the local environment. Even people swimming in the sea have reported dizziness and there have been reports of oil operation corollaries causing cancers, kidney and liver problems. Official reports said the oil spilled was in the range of 310 billion barrels of oil (50,000 litres), yet critics say the government has downplayed the oil spill’s magnitude as well as the health risks posed from the use of chemical dispersants afterwards. In fact, other estimates from academics have put the oil spill as high as 1,200 billion barrels of oil (190,000 litres). The use of Corexit to clean the oil spill will likely increase the toxicity of oil in the sea by 52 times and can continue to have lasting health impact for many years. One of the main ingredients of Corexit is 2-Butoxyethanol which makes up 60% of the dispersant and is well-known to harm the blood, liver, kidneys and central nervous system.
Turning the CSR Pyramid on its Head

As a result of the negative publicity, PTT shares dived from around THB340 to THB310 overnight. The share price has now settled at around THB320, demonstrating that Asian investors are much less concerned about corporate social responsibility than Western investors.

For PTT and Asia it's all about the Marketplace
Therefore, it seems like a good time for an investors looking for profit to put their money into PTT. It is a share that has increased in value by 80% over the past five years and regularly pays a dividend of around 3.80%. It is also a company that has performed strongly over the past year, bar the oil spill, hitting a high of THB 368 per share in February 2013. PTT is engaged in the whole supply chain of providing oil, petrochemicals and natural gas, from exploration, production, refininery, procurement and transport to distributing through retail sales at service stations and exporting overseas. This business is especially big money in Asia where a Thai producer has advantages in selling to other Asian countries hungry for energy such as Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and China.


The Asian Energy Opportunity - LNG at the Forefront
PTT also has other long-term strengths. Their strategy is focused on long-term investments overseas whilst recent mergers have consolidated their 3 core businesses – natural gas, oil, and petrochemical and refinery businesses. This has allowed them to generate around THB5 trillion revenue per year and could push them into Fortune’s top 50 largest companies by 2018. This is partly because of recognition that PTT will have to seek new energy sources abroad to ensure the company’s continued growth as local energy sources within Thailand are limited and declining fast. In fact, over 50% of PTT’s future investments are slated for overseas with the USA particularly attractive for PTT as they are due to become a major supplier after unlocking shale gas and oil deposits. As one of the region’s major energy companies they also have a headstart on opportunities within ASEAN countries and are one of the first energy companies to start exploration in Myanmar from September 2013. Finally, they have strong financial potentially to invest in these many future opportunities with a debt-to-equity ratio of 4:10.

Saturday, November 2, 2013

Asian McDonalds with an MK

Valued at THB 42.35 billion (US$1.4 billion), with 2012 revenues of THB 13.68 billion and profit of THB 1.90 billion, this Bangkok-based company engages in providing cheap quality fast Thai-style Suki, Thai-Chinese-style hotpot with fresh meats and vegetables through its MK Restaurant brand and Japanese food through its Yayoi brand. MK Restaurant Group, this Asian McDonalds upstart has just IPO’d on Thailand’s SET exchange this August in what was the country’s second largest capital raising transaction this year. Currently trading at THB46 (US$1.50), this stock is highly undervalued when compared to its potential Asian competitors such as McDonalds at US$97 and Yum! (operator of KFC and Pizza Hut) at US$68 per share.

Founded in 1989, MK operates 460 MK outlets and 95 Yayoi restaurants in Thailand with ventures in Japan (34 restaurants), Singapore (5 restaurants) and Vietnam (3 restaurants). MK also opened an outlet in Indonesia in September. They are using the IPO proceeds to build a food processing plant, additional outlets and repaying debt. More specifically, they are targeting opening 65 new branches in Thailand as well as 3 overseas within the next two years. Longer term, MK are hoping that their listing on the SET will enable them to tap into faster and lower funding from equity investors and the corporate bond market in order to facilitate their growth internationally as well as open up the possibility of expansion through acquisitions.

The Thai-Chinese Hotpot Experience
The company’s recent financial performance has been exemplary. It has achieved organic growth of 15% over the past five years and have demonstrated innovation by constantly launching pilot brands for development. The latest are Tenjin Tepanyaki, Sakata Ramen and Le Petit. With their restaurant priced at the lower end of the market, and competitively priced with McDonalds and KFC, they are both healthy competition and a good long-term investment. They are also attracting interest from Myanmar, where major local investors are keen to buy into the MK franchise potentially opening up a 60 million population market for the company.


With net profit margins of 15%, strong organic growth, the possibility of growth through acquisitions, and the popularity of its restaurants throughout South-East Asia and Japan, this is a company to watch as a major challenger to Western fast-food giants in the Asia-Pacific region, and who knows maybe the world one day.